Can you ever predict accurately when progressive jackpots can be won?

If you are a player of slot games such as Mega Moolah, which currently has a massive jackpot prize available, then you will no doubt be aware that we might be able to help with deciding when to play based purely on some basic statistics.

However, this is at odds with a common-sense view of the Mega Moolah's progressive prize paradox as how can you predict when what is essentially a random jackpot prize, will be won? The very nature of a random event is that it can happen at any time, so how can that be predictable?

So, it seems that we have a paradox here. When someone offers advice on how to win something that is by its very nature not predictable? So where does the truth lie?

To discover that we need to delve a little into the world of statistics and probability and we're going to use Mega Moolah, the world's most popular progressive jackpot slot as our main focus for this article, although the same principles can be applied to any other random progressive jackpot slot game you play.

Let's first begin by dismissing some of the most common misconceptions about progressive jackpot slots.

Common progressive jackpot slot misconceptions

Progressive jackpots payouts are entirely governed by the machinations of the random number generator that is at the heart of the machine. Game developers and casinos have no influence over this once a game goes live.

  • Progressives only pay out when their owners want them to - FALSE.

A progressive jackpot slot is a game, it is not a sentient being, nor is it able to record how much the slot has brought in through player wagers since the previous win. How much money the slot has or has not brought in has no impact on whether the progressive jackpot will be won.

  • A progressive needs to bring in a certain amount of money before a progressive jackpot will be triggered - FALSE.

On some progressive slot games (such as Major Millions) you need to wager the maximum bet (in this case 3.00) in order to stand a chance of winning the progressive jackpot game. So in this type of slot, then this assumption is correct. However on other slots, such as Mega Moolah, you can wager the minimum amount (0.25) and still have a chance of landing the progressive jackpot prize. The biggest ever progressive jackpot win of £13.2m was triggered by just one such 0.25 bet back in 2015.

  • You can only win a progressive playing for higher stakes - DEPENDS.

There have been a number of winners of the Mega Moolah jackpot prize who have achieved their win by using one of the introductory offers when signing up with a casino. One player has already landed a €7.9 million jackpot when using their 80 Chances to Become a Millionaire promotion offer at Zodiac Casino, while another player landed a prize worth more than £4.2 million using their 150 Chances to Become an Instant Millionaire promotion at the popular Grand Mondial Casino.

  • You can't win a progressive jackpot using an introductory offer or free spins awarded by a casino - FALSE.

Having clarified these four common misconceptions about slot games. Let's now explain how while progressive jackpots can never be accurately predicted as to when they will pay out, you can use the stats available on our jackpot page to help you decide when to play Mega Moolah.

How you can use 'hot' and 'cold' stats on progressive jackpot games sensibly

One of the most common aids for progressive jackpot slot gamers you can find in the casino lobby, which you can access after you register at one of the Mega Moolah casinos, is the jackpot thermometre.

The quick way to check the Mega Moolah stats, such as:

  • When the jackpot was last won.
  • How much the last pay out was for.
  • The average time between wins on the slot game.
  • The average size of win on the slot game.
  • How many days have passed since the last win.

Based on this information, you can make up your own mind whether the slot is running "cold" or 'hot'.

Now the crucial thing to note here is that this method of judging a slot game is flawed. Yes, using statistical averages for a particular game is easy and allows players to make their judgement whether to play it or not, but remember that the nature of randomness is such that even if a slot is viewed as cold, it is still just as likely to trigger a win, as it is when it is warm or even hot.

This was perfectly shown in April 2018 when on April 19th, one player won 5.7 million playing the Mega Moolah slot. On hearing this win, most players would immediately think that the Mega Moolah slot was now cold and very unlikely to pay out. However, the next winner came just 22 hours later, when another UK-based player took home a £1.7 million prize.

What this data shows you is simply what the averages are for that slot in terms of time between wins and the average size of the win. It does not tell you when to expect the next win, nor whether you should, or should not play the game. A slot can be rated as hot and still not be triggered for many weeks or months. A slot can be rated as cold as ice, and still trigger a win that very day.

It is always worthwhile remembering the adage 'past performance is no indication of future performance' when it comes to slots. When you understand this, then the value of the averages for progressive slot wins becomes clear. It is interesting information that you can use to decide when you may want to play a game (you may want to play for bigger sums of money, rather than smaller progressives), but it is absolutely not an indicator of when a game will or will not be won.

I've read online that someone has a 'system' for winning progressive jackpot slots?

If an individual promises you a system to win a progressive jackpot, or indeed any other slots jackpot, then don't buy into it - unless you are fascinated by statistics and numbers. Bottom line is there is no fool-proof system for a random event and the only way to win the Mega Moolah progressive jackpot is to play - and play often!

Byline: This article was published by Mega Moolah expert Henry. Media and other enquiries.

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